تحلیل پیشران‌های کلیدی توسعه صنعت طیور با استفاده از رویکرد آینده‌نگاری

نوع مقاله : علمی پژوهشی- تغذیه طیور

نویسندگان

1 گروه مدیریت دولتی، واحد رشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، رشت، ایران

2 گروه علوم دامی، واحد رشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، رشت، ایران

چکیده

هدف این پژوهش تحلیل پیشران‌های کلیدی توسعه صنعت طیور بااستفاده از رویکردآینده‌نگاری بود که استان‌های گیلان، مازندران و گلستان بعنوان نمونه موردمطالعه قرارگرفتند. پژوهش حاضر کاربردی، از نوع توصیفی–پیمایشی بود. جامعه آماری خبرگان مرتبط با صنعت طیور در کشور بودند. جهت جمع‌آوری داده‌ها از منابع کتابخانه‌ای، پرسشنامه و مصاحبه استفاده گردید. برای انتخاب خبرگان نیز روش تکنیک گلوله‌برفی بکار رفت. برای انجام مصاحبه‌ها 5 نفر از خبرگان انتخاب و پرسشنامه‌ها نیز بین 32 نفر از خبرگان توزیع شدند. در بخش آینده‌نگاری نیز ماتریس‌های مرتبط بین 5 تن از خبرگان توزیع شد. تجزیه‌و‌تحلیل داده‌ها نیز بااستفاده از نرم‌افزارهای SPSS، MicMac و ScenarioWizard انجام گردید. در این پژوهش برای آینده‌نگاری توسعه صنعت طیور3 پیشران کلیدی شناسایی گردید که شامل سیاست‌های کلان اقتصادی و بازرگانی متناسب با توسعه و شکل‌گیری بازار مبتنی بر نوآوری، نظام آموزشی مبتنی بر پرورش فرهنگ نوآوری و وام‌ها و منابع مالی می‌شدند. همچنین تحلیل‌های آینده‌نگاری دو سناریو برای آینده صنعت طیور پیش‌بینی نمود که شامل حوزه‌های اقتصادی و آموزشی بوده که باتوجه به میزان امتیاز و پایداری سناریوهای به دست آمده می‌توان خوش‌بین بود که وضعیت صنعت طیور بسمت سناریوی اول یعنی سیاست‌های مناسب با توسعه بازار، نظام آموزشی متناسب با پرورش فرهنگ نوآوری و افزایش ارائه وام‌ها و منابع مالی حرکت نماید. لذا لازم است تا سیاست‌گذاران سیاست‌هایی همچون معافیت‌های مالیاتی و وام‌های حمایت‌کننده، توسعه روابط دیپلماتیک برای تسهیل ورود به بازارهای جهانی و  سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی، توسعه دانشکده‌های تخصصی و گسترش ارتباط دانشگاه-صنعت را برای تقویت دو حوزه اقتصادی و آموزشی در صنعت طیور درپیش گیرند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis the Key Proponents of Poultry Industry Development Using Forecasting Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mojgan Abdollahi kalourazi 1
  • Saied Baghersalimi 1
  • Alireza Seidavi 2
1 Department of Public Administration, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran.
2 Department of Animal Science, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction[1] In recent years, the poultry industry has been able to provide an opportunity to meet the challenge of food security due to the provision of high quality protein to consumers as well as the possibility of rapid capital return for producers. Research shows that there are opportunities for improving the poultry industry in the business sector, but a future-oriented plan is needed to achieve commercial success. The country's poultry industry, having one of the largest volumes of manpower, is one of the country's most important economic resources. The growth and development of this industry is very important due to the current sensitive conditions of the country in the region and globally. The country's poultry industry has the relative advantage of being able to gain regional markets by systematically planning and creating the right platforms. Therefore, the need for long-term and future-oriented planning in this industry has become an undeniable necessity.
Materials and Methods The purpose of this study was to analyze the key drivers of poultry industry development by using an autobiographical approach that were studied in three provinces of Guilan, Mazandaran and Golestan in Iran. The present study was applied in terms of nature, applied research, and descriptive-survey in terms of method, because it describes and interprets what is, and focuses on existing conditions or relationships, current beliefs, and current processes. From the data type point of view, this study was a quantitative-qualitative one. The statistical population of this study was poultry industry experts in the country. The statistical population of this study consisted of: 1- Managers and Industrial Entrepreneurs of Guilan, Mazandaran and Golestan Provinces active in poultry industry (32 production units); 2- Researchers and Academic Members of Guilan, Mazandaran and Golestan Provinces active in Poultry Industry (Guilan, Mazandaran and Golestan Universities); 3- Policymakers and Managers of Guilan, Mazandaran and Golestan Provinces are active in the process of policy development and planning of technology development, especially in the poultry industry sector (Agricultural Jihad, Livestock Support, Science and Technology Park). In addition to using library resources, a researcher-made questionnaire and interview were used to collect data. Sampling method was non-probable and snowball technique was used. In the snowball technique, the interviewee is asked to introduce the next person to the researcher. This method continued until the interviewees identified the previous interviewees. In this study, to identify effective factors in poultry industry, we interviewed 5 experts. Then, 32 experts were provided with a researcher-made questionnaire to validate the identified factors in order to evaluate the importance of each factor. In this study, face-content validity was used to estimate and validate the research instrument and the questionnaire, so that the questionnaire was provided to several experts including supervisor and asked to evaluate the questionnaire and comment on whether the tool is suitable for measuring research variables or not. Cronbach's alpha method and composite reliability coefficient were used to assess the internal consistency of the questionnaire and standard constructs of the questionnaire. Cronbach's alpha for the variables was 0.944 and CR was 0.947. Two matrices were used for the foreseeability of the northern poultry industry, and 5 poultry experts were provided with the first matrix examining the interactions of the northern poultry industry. This matrix was designed to be 29×29. The second matrix examined the uncertainty of poultry industry indices in the north of the country. This matrix was designed as 6×6. Data analysis was performed using SPSS, MicMac and ScenarioWizard software.
Results and Discussion In this study, three key drivers were identified for the future development of poultry industry, which included macroeconomic and business policies tailored to the development and formation of an innovation-based market, an education system based on the culture of innovation, and loans and financial resources. Also, the foreign investment development, entrepreneurship promotion and investment risk mitigation can be considered as macroeconomic policies affecting poultry industry development. Also emphasize that the effectiveness of the training system and training courses for poultry industry activists can lead to the development of this industry. Forecasting analysis also predicted two scenarios for the future of the poultry industry, which include economic and educational areas, which can be optimistic given the scale and sustainability of the scenarios that the poultry industry is moving towards the first scenario, namely appropriate market development policies, an appropriate education system. Move forward with a culture of innovation and increased lending and funding. Researchers have also pointed to the impact of economic and educational domains on industry development in their research.
Conclusion Future poultry industry policies need to be implemented in line with these areas. It is therefore recommended that policymakers adopt policies such as long-term and low-cost loans to support the development of poultry industry investment, enter global markets and facilitate foreign investment in poultry industry, develop specialized poultry-related colleges at prestigious universities in the country, and support student risk-taking. Follow up with innovative designs.




 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • forecasting
  • Key Proponents
  • poultry industry
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